2015: Year of the Uh-huh

Posted On 20/04/2007

Filed under Food for thoughts

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2015 is just 8 year ahead. Not many people in this Southeast Asia country know their country is turning from oil exporter to oil importer.
Here is the statistic for the year 2006 from National statistic department
Malaysia export statisitc 2006

As from the table, you can’t miss the electronic export, which represent 56% of the total export. While the petrol product represent 16% of the export. What we didn’t see is the “oil factors” for all the exports. Most of the product are fuel by relative cheap oil : oil subsidiaries to the manufacture. Yes, the government has “reduce” the petrol subsidiaries in petrol station, actually it is fair for general public. But what the policy maker just tell you the half truth, heavy subsidiaries still happens behind your back.

Convergence research has an archive document from US EIA about the oil output status of Malaysia in year 1996. In the document, Malaysia are rank 14, produce 710,000 barrels of oil. In year 2005, Malaysia has fell to rank 23, produce 800,000barrels of oils. In year 2005, according to world CIA info on Malaysia, the oil production has fell to 770,000 barrels. The country private vehicle oil demands also increase due to the national car project policies.

The scariest part of all, according to the Peak Oil, no driller are able to find millions barrels field in year 2004.

Back home, the increase of petrol price do little to help promote the conservation mindset. The main reason is due to shoddy public transport services. In addition, it seems all the city local councils has make parking as part of the major income. Malaysia excessive road per population now become a headache to us. The country is in the dilemma to undo the 22 years Dr. Mahathir road and motor vehicles policies to efficiency transportation policies, or stay status quo (and let the people face the music).

Unlike Thailand, Malaysia are never been in the shoes of oil importer country. So the people has little awareness of conservation. Since Thailand private industry are not rely on government oil subsidiaries, the competitiveness of Thailand industry is pretty obvious. With ever growing China consumer market, it is just matter of time for the electronic industry to shift their plant to China, when our country oil subsidiary advantage subsides.

Nobody can tell us what will happen in year 2015. But if the policies maker and the mainstream media refuse to show the truth to the people, we don’t need a fengsui master to tell us the year 2015 sheep are stale.

Further reading
Hubbert peak theory
Peak Oil
Worse than fossil fuel

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