The DEALER roles of Sabah/Sarawak BN parties
ylchong | desiderata2000.blogspot.com
BN sarawak/sabah rebellion how? Can you offer ‘em some Sun Tzu art of w’r lessons? I’ll take 30% only wan!:)
On the Malaysia 12th General Election, East Malaysia BN resemble 38% of Parliament seat for BN. Many people including mainstream media, has speculate Anwar Ibrahim start “bought over”. In fact, if Barisan Rakyat secure 30 member of Parliament from East Malaysia, they will rules the government.
However, the bought over games are pure speculation. Strategically, it is unwise to MATERIALISE it. 😉 However, political wise, it is good strategy to make “Mexican wave” to put BN in fire-fighting mode.
How BN Sabah/Sarawak play the dealer for NOT hopping?
IMHO, Desi don’t need my half-past-6 advise on this “dealer” idea. 😉
Here is my view.
In poker game, a dealer is the one who exercise the greatest flexibility and freedom to decide the best strategy to profit from the game. Because dealer can make decision base on deck of cards shown, and take adequate risk from its own card which are yet to be reviewed.
Indeed, even without hopping over to the loose opposition position, BN Sabah/Sarawak can always play an dealer roles inside Parliament. Because of the weakened UMNO, the stakes of Sabah/Sarawak are significant to break the BN stances of ruling.
This “dealer” roles will turn BN Sabah/Sarawak a border line keeper. In fact, BN Sabah/Sarawak can choose to abstain or even oppose law that brought up by BN whenever necessary, and UMNO can do little to punish them.
For the next 5 years, there will tons of ruling will be pass over Parliament. Since BN don’t have the 2/3 majorities, they cannot force any bills without going through the opposition scrutiny. However, BR can lobby BN Sabah/Sarawak support to pass or reject any bills, a luxury that UMNO can do little to stop it.
By average, Malaysia Parliament will pass around 40 bills annually. For the extent of 5 years, there is ~200 bills or 200 rounds deal for Sabah/Sarawak BN parties. Sabah/Sarawak BN MP can always exercise their rights of playing “Makkal Sakti” .
Compare to 1 time bought over, this is a better bargain Sabah/Sarawak BN parties. 9,400 bargains. Imagine that!
Are Abdullah Badawi sideline East Malaysia BN by purpose?
Until today, all Malaysia mainstream newspaper keep avoiding the word of “weaker” BN. In fact, 38% is a significant number that one can hardly ignore. In the pass, Sabah/Sarawak BN parties are threated as “backup ballot box” because west Malaysia BN parties has diluted their numbers by overall.
Many high ranking UMNO party members has start their attack on Abdullah Badawi. But few has take note on Abdullah Badawi move to sideline East Malaysia BN by giving them 15% of minister post, which are far below the number of 38% Parliament seat secure by them.
Whether Abdullah Badawi did it by intention or not, he has successfully put East Malaysia BN in borderline position. As long as Anwar keep playing up East Malaysia BN defect cards, Abdullah Badawi can always use it to strengthen his position in UMNO. What he need to do delay all Emergency General Meeting (EGM) after the Parliament opening, and let BR reject some draconian bills.
Kuli and Najib must scratch their head to find other way to reach the premier rank.
Complicated ? Well, this is politics. 🙂